President Biden traveled to Wilmington, North Carolina on Thursday, with a stop in Charlotte to meet the families of police officers who lost their lives in the line of duty. It is noteworthy that Vice President Kamala Harris also visited Charlotte last month, indicating the significance of North Carolina in their agenda.
On Wednesday, while the state’s six-week abortion ban took effect, Vice President Harris visited Jacksonville, Florida. As previously noted by Inside Washington, Harris has a unique ability to focus on abortion rights that Biden, being an 81-year-old Catholic man, does not possess. During her visit, Harris passionately criticized Florida Republicans, referring to them as “extremist” lawmakers who either lack understanding of how a woman’s body functions or simply disregard it.
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The president’s approval ratings remain low, even in states that he secured victory in during the 2020 election, including Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Nevada. Despite this, the administration’s attention is still directed towards battleground states like North Carolina and Florida.
Florida has undergone a significant political shift in the last decade, transforming into a stronghold for the Republican Party. Governor Ron DeSantis secured a resounding re-election victory in 2022, garnering support that surged nearly 20 points ahead of his opponents. This remarkable turnaround stands in stark contrast to the previous era when Democratic leaders, including former President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden, emerged victorious in the state. Additionally, Florida boasted Democratic Senators like Bill Nelson and the late Bob Graham during that period.
North Carolina has proven to be even more difficult to win than Florida. In 2008, Barack Obama achieved a remarkable feat by becoming the first Democrat since Jimmy Carter in 1976 to secure victory in the state. However, since then, North Carolina has shifted towards a more conservative stance. Mitt Romney won the state in 2012, and Donald Trump emerged victorious in both of his presidential campaigns. Additionally, Democrats have been unable to secure any Senate victories in the state since 2008.
Democrats believe that the reversal of abortion rights in the 2022 Dobbs v Jackson decision may have made both states potential battlegrounds.
Florida presents a more formidable challenge. In the 2016 election, the state only narrowly supported Trump. However, the influx of retirees attracted by the warm weather and lack of income taxes, along with migrants from socialist countries like Venezuela, and the rightward shift of the existing Hispanic population, has transformed Florida into a testing ground for conservative politics.
Nikki Fried, the chairwoman of the Florida Democratic Party, believes that the strict abortion ban and the ballot initiative to protect abortion rights in the state can bring about significant changes. According to my colleague John Bowden, Fried and other Democrats are determined to focus on three key areas during their campaign this year: affordability, accountability, and abortion.
In a notable accomplishment, Democrats managed to secure a significant victory by successfully flipping the mayorship of Jacksonville last year. This achievement is certainly commendable and demonstrates their growing influence in the political landscape.
According to a report by my colleague Ariana Baio, North Carolina has become an attractive prospect for Biden and the Democratic party. The state has experienced a significant increase in population in recent years, with a particular influx of college-educated young professionals. Many of these newcomers have settled in the Charlotte area or the Research Triangle, which comprises Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill, home to some of the state’s top universities. This demographic is known to lean towards the Democratic party, making North Carolina a favorable battleground for Biden.
In North Carolina, Democrats are hoping that abortion rights will play a significant role in shifting the state’s political landscape. Governor Roy Cooper, a Democrat who has successfully won elections during Trump’s presidency, expressed concern about the possibility of Republicans surpassing the state’s current 12-week abortion ban.
“At the time, he explained to me the impact of the bans in the southeast, including the situation in Florida and the 12-week ban in North Carolina. These restrictions placed a heavy burden on women as they required an in-person appointment before accessing essential healthcare.”
Democrats are also hopeful that Mark Robinson, the Republican nominee for governor known for his xenophobic rhetoric, could not only assist Democrat Josh Stein in winning the governorship, but also help Biden secure a last-minute victory reminiscent of a thrilling March Madness buzzer-beater.
Despite their optimism, Democrats are not oblivious.
Representative Maxwell Frost, the progressive Gen-Z Democrat from Florida, expressed that he believes the issue of abortion will have a significant impact on the state. He acknowledged that while there will be Republicans who support the ballot initiative to enshrine abortion rights, he believes that the overall sentiment among voters will play a crucial role in shaping the outcome.
Senator Marco Rubio completely dismissed the attempts by Harris and other individuals to turn Florida into a Democratic state.
“I believe that some of the issues are being greatly exaggerated, but it is understandable considering the intense debate happening across the nation,” he expressed. “Harris is currently campaigning for office, and I think this controversy might give them an edge. However, I firmly believe that they will ultimately lose by a significant margin in Florida.”
In a confident tone, Senator Ted Budd of North Carolina expressed his belief that North Carolina would remain a stronghold for the Republican Party.
“He has squandered the last three and a half years, and now he’s going to waste a trip to North Carolina,” he expressed to me when I inquired about Biden’s upcoming visit to the state this week.
