There is a growing sense of fear among top members of the Democratic Party regarding President Joe Biden’s chances of being reelected. This fear is even present among those who were previously confident about the upcoming battle with Donald Trump.
For months, Democrats have been tirelessly working towards the 2024 election, with little joy and great exhaustion. However, as we approach the election in just five months, the anxiety felt within the party has transformed into a tangible sense of unease. More than a dozen party leaders and operatives have expressed this growing trepidation. The divide between what Democrats publicly convey and what they privately discuss amongst friends has widened, reflecting their increasing concerns about Biden’s chances of success.
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According to the expert, Biden’s consistently low polling numbers and the high stakes of the election are causing a sense of panic among some.
“Oh my God, the democracy might end,” exclaimed the individual, expressing their concern over the potential consequences of Mitt Romney becoming president.
Despite all odds, Trump continues to lead ahead of Biden in the majority of battleground states. Not only did he surpass Biden in fundraising during the month of April, but the situation may worsen for Democrats as Trump’s hush-money trial concludes and another trial involving the president’s son is set to commence in Delaware.
In recent days, the concern has spread widely as Trump traveled to some of the country’s most liberal territories, such as New Jersey and New York, in order to attract Hispanic and Black voters. He confidently claimed that he would emerge victorious in those areas, which seemed highly unlikely.
In terms of fundraising, Trump has been surpassing Biden for quite some time. Last month, he managed to outpace the President’s fundraising by $25 million, which included a remarkable $50.5 million haul from a Palm Beach, Florida event. A Democratic Party donor advisor has compiled a comprehensive list of nearly two dozen reasons why Biden might lose, which has been shared with funders. These reasons include concerns about immigration, high inflation, the President’s age, the popularity of Vice President Kamala Harris, and the presence of third-party candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The adviser stated that donors frequently inquire about their opinions, and they find it more convenient to provide visual representations while the donors read and they can enjoy a drink.
According to the adviser, the reasons for our potential victory are so few that there is no need for me to keep them on my phone.
The pressure on donors intensified the day after it was reported that Biden had fallen behind Trump in fundraising last month. Massachusetts Gov. Maura Healey heightened the stakes as she introduced the president to a crowd of 300.
Attending a cluster of fundraising events in Boston that day, Biden had high hopes of raising over $6 million for his political operation. However, Healey wasn’t satisfied with that amount.
“To all of you who generously contributed, we extend our heartfelt gratitude,” expressed Healey, a Democrat serving her first term. “We kindly request that you consider increasing your support and reaching out to more individuals who share our love for this nation, and who comprehend the pressing issues we confront today.”
Laughter filled the room, but Healey’s tone quickly shifted to a more serious one. With a sense of urgency that was uncommon for Healey, the governor passionately urged the gathering of wealthy donors and local Democratic leaders to carefully consider the significance of the upcoming election.
Throughout Biden’s presidency, there have been very few instances that haven’t faced scrutiny and doubt. Biden’s team has taken pleasure in mocking pessimistic forecasts, collecting a dossier of articles and videos where the president was underestimated. Supporters and aides of the Biden campaign highlight encouraging poll numbers, particularly in battleground states, and emphasize Trump’s limited campaigning efforts and infrastructure in key states, such as staff, organizing programs, and advertising.
According to a Biden campaign adviser who requested anonymity, it was never suggested by the president’s team that Trump’s hush-money trial would have any impact, positive or negative, on Biden’s campaign. Instead, the adviser emphasized that Trump will be compelled to defend his actions in limiting abortion rights, undermining democracy, and prioritizing corporate interests during his time in office.
According to POLITICO, Kevin Munoz, a spokesperson for the Biden campaign, expressed that while Trump’s photo-ops and PR stunts may capture the attention of some people in Washington D.C., they will not be effective in winning over the voters who hold the power to decide the outcome of the election. Munoz emphasized the importance of the campaign’s daily efforts on the ground and through media platforms in battleground states. These efforts aim to highlight President Biden’s dedication to fighting for the middle class against corporate greed and to expose Donald Trump’s agenda of seeking revenge, promoting retribution, and advocating for abortion bans. Munoz believes that this work will ultimately secure victory for the Biden campaign and secure them the White House once again.
Biden supporters who maintain a sense of optimism assert that they prefer him over Trump. They then unite around the topics of abortion and reproductive rights, which Rep. Dan Kildee, a Michigan Democrat, describes as “a fundamental game-changer.”
According to Kildee, it is crucial to launch a campaign that highlights the stark contrast between Donald Trump’s backward-looking policies and Joe Biden’s forward-thinking vision. Kildee believes that while Trump represents a return to the 19th century, Biden represents progress and a move towards a brighter future in the 21st century.
He did not mention whether such a campaign is being conducted, or conducted to his satisfaction.
“A lot of things can occur between now and then,” admitted Rep. Ann Kuster, a Democrat from New Hampshire, who will be retiring after the upcoming election. She also highlighted the diminishing abortion rights due to the conservative-led Supreme Court that was reshaped by Trump. “I am aware that a substantial number of voters will be driven by the Dobbs decision.”
Pete Giangreco, a seasoned Democratic strategist with extensive experience in presidential campaigns, expressed his concerns about the current state of the campaign. He believes that although there is still a chance for victory, the campaign is not currently on a path that leads to success. Giangreco argues that if the narrative of the race revolves around comparing the accomplishments of the past 3.5 years under Biden to the four years under Trump, the campaign would consistently come up short.
“In 2020, the energy was sufficient to remove Donald Trump from office, and there were additional factors on the ballot that motivated young individuals to participate in subsequent elections.”
According to her, this time it’s different. She expresses concern that young voters may not feel the same sense of urgency because they have experienced four years of a stable White House. She fears that they may have forgotten the disastrous state of affairs in 2017 when the Trump administration first came into power.
Despite the extensive efforts of the Biden campaign over the past two months, their impact has been somewhat limited. AdImpact reports that they have spent a significant amount of $25 million on swing-state ad spending. However, according to FiveThirtyEight, Biden’s average job-approval rating on March 7, which was the day of his State of the Union Address, stood at 38.1 percent. As of Friday, it has only increased slightly to 38.4 percent.
And his opposition to Trump has remained largely unchanged. As of April 22, when Trump’s criminal trial commenced, the expected Republican nominee had a slight advantage of 0.3 points in the national polls, as reported by FiveThirtyEight. Since then, Trump’s lead has increased by approximately one point, and he currently holds a 1.4-point lead over Biden in the FiveThirtyEight average.
Biden’s declining numbers confirm this observation. According to a recent poll conducted by Siena College, Biden’s lead over Trump in New York has shrunk to just 9 points, with 47 percent of registered voters supporting Biden and 38 percent supporting Trump. This is a significant drop from four years ago when Biden won the state by a margin of 23 points. The poll also reveals that the president is facing challenges across various demographic groups, except for Black voters. A majority of Latinos (53 percent) and whites (54 percent) expressed an unfavorable opinion of Trump. In response to these findings, Biden has launched TV and radio ads in the Empire State, coinciding with Trump’s upcoming campaign rally in the Bronx.
“I’m concerned that we might face a situation similar to 2022, where everyone suddenly realizes in the final seven weeks and has to rush to take action,” Levine expressed his worry about his state. It’s worth noting that his state hasn’t shifted towards the GOP since Ronald Reagan in 1980.
This election season, Democrats are facing additional challenges with the ongoing war in Ukraine and the divisive conflict between Israel and Hamas. These issues have created a sense of chaos and further divided the party. Representative Ritchie Torres, a prominent New York Democrat known for his strong support of Israel, shares the concerns of his fellow party members. He specifically highlights the rising cost of groceries and goods, which began during the pandemic and shows no signs of subsiding.
“The competitiveness of the election is surprising, considering the negative qualities of Donald Trump,” he expressed. “In a well-functioning democracy, Donald Trump should not have a realistic chance of becoming president. The fact that the race is close is worrying.”
Trump has strongly criticized officials in blue states, particularly targeting the justice system in New York. In California, he sent his daughter-in-law, Lara, and his son, Eric, to showcase the state’s influential Democratic leaders as a warning example.
“I apologize that you are subjected to living under a communist regime,” expressed Eric Trump on Wednesday at the Stampede, a vibrant country music venue located in Temecula, a charming inland community nestled between Los Angeles and San Diego. In a casual manner, Trump disregarded California Democrat Gavin Newsom, labeling him as the country’s “most inadequate governor.”
“There is no doubt,” remarked Trump, “that a war is taking place within our nation.”
In early June, the elder Trump is scheduled to make an appearance at a San Francisco fundraiser. The event will be hosted by tech investor David Sacks and his wife, Jacqueline, who is an executive in the clothing brand industry. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya will also be in attendance.
Chamath Palihapitiya has made a range of political donations in the past, supporting candidates like Elizabeth Warren and contributing to a super PAC that backed Kennedy Jr. He even supported the recall committee against Newsom in 2021 and briefly contemplated running for governor. The increasing conservative influence in Silicon Valley has drawn national scrutiny to problems such as widespread drug use in public spaces, the presence of homeless encampments, and the activities of organized groups of thieves who target retail stores throughout the Bay Area.
California Democrats are preparing themselves for further actions from Trump, just like their counterparts in New York.
According to Harmeet Dhillon, the RNC committee member from California, San Francisco has undergone transformations as it has embraced taxpayers, job creators, and tech CEOs who have shown interest in engaging with the city and its politics.
Dhillon took a moment to contemplate her encounters with Democrats in the city. Having previously served as a prominent figure in the local GOP, she later represented Trump’s legal battles to secure his place on state ballots. Dhillon acknowledged that very few Democrats are willing to confide in her about their concerns. However, it is worth noting that she has not come across anyone who expresses enthusiasm for Biden either.
“I often hear Democrats express their dismay at the limited choices we have for president,” said one Democratic observer.
