Whether on purpose or by accident, Donald Trump has spent his entire life evading punishment, traveling the world with impunity, and accusing others of being criminals when his own actions came under scrutiny.
This “I’m rubber, you’re glue” tactic helped him defeat former New York senator and Obama administration Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in the 2016 presidential election.
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For those who may not recall, Clinton spent much of the 2015–2016 election cycle engaged in a scandal over her use of a private email server while serving as America’s top diplomat. A congressional inquiry discovered that some of the emails she received from aides contained material later determined to be secret, which might have been enough to charge her with breaking US laws governing the handling of national defense information.
Throughout the campaign, Trump regularly referred to her as a criminal. During an October 2016 discussion between the two contenders, he informed her she’d “be in jail” if he became president.
After eight years, Trump’s luck has run out. A court of law has labeled him a criminal, where it matters most.
A jury of 12 New Yorkers convicted him on 34 felony counts of fabricating company records in an attempt to illegally influence the 2016 presidential election. They accused him of hiding reimbursement payments to his then-attorney Michael Cohen for $130,000 in hush money to Stormy Daniels, whose claim of having sex with Trump threatened to derail his campaign against Clinton.
Despite Trump’s claims that his conviction was “rigged” and “corrupt,” as well as his promise to fight, he will face actual consequences for the first time.
In his new home state of Florida, incarceration may prevent him from voting. Several states may prohibit him from obtaining professional licenses and engaging in certain types of business. Some nations may also refuse him access or require him to go through additional steps before acquiring visas to visit them.
But for Trump, the most significant consequence—and the one with the greatest impact on his destiny—could come from voters.
According to a new poll commissioned by NPR and PBS and conducted by Marist College, 17% of respondents indicated a guilty decision against Trump would make them less likely to vote for him in November.
That 17 percent might not seem like much. This percentage only accounts for one out of every six voters, despite a significant number of respondents indicating that a guilty verdict against Trump would have no impact on their voting behavior.
However, in American presidential elections, small margins might mean the most. That’s because we elect presidents through 50 individual elections, with the results weighted by each state’s population rather than a single national referendum.
That complex structure is how Trump defeated Hillary Clinton in 2016, winning three critical states (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania) despite losing the national election by several million votes.
What mattered in the end were the approximately 30,000 votes cast across the three states. Only 44,000 votes in Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin separated Biden and Trump when they faced off four years later.
Even though Biden appears to be trailing in many polls, Trump’s chances of regaining the presidency could be in jeopardy if one in every six Trump supporters stays at home or votes for the incumbent this November.
If Trump fails to win a second non-consecutive term in November, the cumulative weight of the three remaining criminal charges against him might mean he spends the rest of his life in prison.
