Republicans are becoming aware that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has the potential to harm their chosen candidate, similar to the way he could impact President Joe Biden. This realization comes after two recent polls indicated that the inclusion of third-party candidates in the election might not necessarily work in favor of former President Donald Trump.
Even Donald Trump himself is acknowledging the potential problem he is facing.
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In a recent radio interview, President Trump expressed his thoughts on Kennedy’s impact on the upcoming election. He mentioned that there is a belief that Kennedy could harm both Biden and himself, but he speculated that Biden might be slightly more affected.
Democrats have spent months being defensive about the renegade Kennedy. Biden surrogates have openly warned about the potential impact Kennedy could have on the election. The Democratic National Committee even went as far as setting up a dedicated operation to counter the threat of third-party and independent candidates.
Recent polls indicate that Kennedy is gaining support from both major party candidates’ 2020 supporters. Interestingly, Kennedy has a higher favorability rating among Republican voters, indicating that he has a greater potential to attract Trump’s supporters rather than Biden’s.
Moreover, an analysis of campaign finance data conducted by POLITICO reveals a significantly higher level of interest in Kennedy from individuals who had previously donated to former President Trump, as compared to those who had contributed to Biden in the past.
Republican consultant Alice Stewart expressed her concern regarding the Trump campaign’s lack of awareness. She believes that if they fail to recognize the potential threat, they are simply deluding themselves. Stewart emphasizes the importance of not losing any voters, especially to a third-party candidate who aligns with Trump’s policy ideas.
According to Jim McLaughlin, a Trump pollster, he believes that RFK Jr. will have a greater negative impact on Joe Biden rather than Donald Trump in battleground states. This is why the Biden campaign is making efforts to have him removed from the ballot.
According to McLaughlin, Trump has a more passionate base compared to Joe Biden. However, he believes that there will be a certain percentage of voters that RFK Jr. will attract away from Trump.
According to the NBC News poll, when Kennedy, Cornel West, and Jill Stein were included as options, a small 2-point lead for Trump in a head-to-head matchup turned into a 2-point advantage for Biden. This shift occurred because 15 percent of respondents who initially chose Trump against Biden switched their support to Kennedy in the five-way matchup. In comparison, only 7 percent of those who initially chose Biden defected to Kennedy.
In a statement to POLITICO, Brian Hughes, a senior adviser of the Trump campaign, expressed confidence in their ability to secure voter support, regardless of who appears on the ballot.
The Biden campaign dismissed Kennedy as a “radical leftist” and pointed to the DNC’s third-party rapid-response operation as proof of their concern about Kennedy stealing votes from the Democratic incumbent in the general election. The DNC has been launching aggressive attacks against Kennedy, including billboards that link him to Trump. One of the billboards, unveiled by the DNC on Monday in Scottsdale, Arizona, features the independent candidate wearing one of Trump’s iconic red “Make America Great Again” baseball caps and labels him a “spoiler for Trump.”
Stewart, a Republican consultant, emphasized that the DNC and the Biden campaign are investing significant energy and resources into discrediting Robert F. Kennedy Jr. while highlighting Biden’s endorsement from the majority of the Kennedy family. In response, Stewart suggests that the RNC should take steps to ensure that voters recognize the superior policy proposals of President Trump compared to RFK Jr. and Biden.
Trump and Kennedy have a shared appeal among supporters who see them as embodying a similar brand of anti-establishment politics. According to several Republican strategists, Kennedy has the potential to attract voters who are skeptical of vaccines and who had previously supported Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis during the primary.
According to Republican strategist Matthew Bartlett, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. possesses two advantages. Firstly, his well-known Democratic last name could appeal to Democratic voters who are seeking an alternative to Biden. Secondly, he is known for his intriguing, albeit controversial, ideas on topics such as vaccines, autism, and other fringe concepts that align more with right-wing ideology rather than left-wing beliefs.
There is a clear overlap in the potential support for both Trump and Kennedy, which goes beyond just policy. According to a POLITICO analysis, out of the $22.7 million raised by Kennedy’s campaign from donors giving at least $200, almost $1.6 million has come from over 1,700 donors who previously contributed to Trump’s campaign during the 2020 cycle.
In contrast, Kennedy has managed to raise a modest $850,000 from approximately 980 donors who had previously contributed to Biden’s 2020 campaign. Although these numbers account for only a small portion of Kennedy’s overall fundraising, they do indicate a potential stronger appeal among individuals who were once interested in Trump.
Angela Stanton King, who previously worked on Black voter outreach for Trump’s 2020 campaign, is now a part of Kennedy’s campaign team.
During the January 6 rally near the Capitol, Del Bigtree, Kennedy’s communications director and an advocate against vaccines, actively promoted his cause.
Several recently departed staffers have openly acknowledged the campaign’s conservative bias, which has occasionally caused embarrassment. One undisclosed consultant, in two fundraising emails, referred to individuals charged in connection with the January 6 Capitol riot as “activists sitting in a Washington DC jail cell stripped of their Constitutional liberties.” Kennedy later clarified that this statement did not reflect his own perspective.
A different consultant leading the effort for New York ballot-access work proposed that supporters of both Trump and Kennedy should unite and strategically vote together in the November elections, as they have a common adversary. However, the campaign later released a statement distancing itself from this strategy.
Kennedy has been critical of Trump for failing to fulfill his promise of “draining the swamp” during his time in office. He specifically called out Trump for hiring individuals like John Bolton, who served as his national security adviser. However, Kennedy has shifted his focus in recent weeks and has been highlighting the differences between himself and his former primary rival, Biden. In a recent interview with CNN, Kennedy expressed his concern that Biden could pose a greater threat to democracy than Trump.
According to Bartlett, Kennedy was introduced, supported, and expected to be a strong competitor against Biden in the primary.
He remarked, “The torpedo seems to be coming back at us like a boomerang.”
