According to a recontact survey released Wednesday, former President Trump’s margin over President Biden appears to have slipped slightly after his conviction last week in the New York hush money criminal case.
The New York Times/Siena College recontact poll, conducted on June 3-4, featured roughly 2,000 registered voters who had previously taken part in either an April national survey or a May survey of voters in six battleground states.
Related posts
Before the verdict, recontacted voters preferred Trump over Biden by three points, 48 percent to 45 percent. When asked about their preferences again after the guilty decision, the same respondents backed Trump over Biden by one point, 47 percent to 46 percent.
In the recontact study, Trump dropped 7 points of his pre-conviction support: 3 percent indicate they will vote for Biden, while 4 percent are undecided.
Biden, on the other hand, has lost 4 percentage points of his support since Trump’s conviction: 1.5 percent now say they will vote for Trump, while 2.5 percent are undecided.
According to the Times, the tiny trend away from Trump is particularly noticeable among young, nonwhite, and disaffected Democratic voters. About a quarter of those who voted for Biden in 2020 but then indicated they expected to support Trump in 2024 have changed their minds and say they will vote for Biden.
Prior to the verdict, there was a roughly divided group of people who said they hated both candidates. According to the recontact study, Trump lost one-fifth of his supporters, with half switching to Biden and the other half remaining unsure.
According to the Times, recontacting surveys cannot provide an accurate picture of the voters as a whole, but they can be useful for tracking changes in people’s opinions over time.
Several polls taken in the immediate wake of Trump’s conviction revealed similar tendencies, with a tiny shift toward Biden.
According to The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average, Trump and Biden are tied, with Trump ahead by less than one percentage point – comfortably below most polls’ margins of error.
