Following President Biden’s State of the Union address in March, there was a noticeable surge in the polls. This surge not only seemed to rejuvenate his campaign but also reinvigorated the Democratic Party.
According to a recent national poll conducted by CNN, former President Donald Trump is currently leading President Biden by 6 points in a head-to-head horserace, with 49 percent of the respondents supporting Trump and 43 percent supporting Biden. The poll also reveals that only 34 percent of voters approve of Biden’s handling of the economy, which is traditionally considered a crucial factor in determining voting preferences among Americans.
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According to consumer sentiment, Democrats should be concerned about Biden’s electoral fate. A significant 65 percent of registered voters consider the economy to be of utmost importance to them. When examining how these voters, who prioritize the economy, plan to vote, it is projected that Biden will lose by a margin of over 30 points, with only 30 percent supporting him compared to 62 percent for his opponent.
According to recent state-level polling from Fox News, Trump has regained the lead, despite his ongoing trial in New York City. These polls indicate that Trump is ahead of Biden in the crucial swing states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, with a margin ranging from 1 to 5 points. It appears that Trump’s chances of winning the election are becoming more challenging as time goes on.
According to a report from Fox News, although a majority of voters in each state consider the Trump “hush money” trial to be fair, the outcome of a guilty verdict would not affect their willingness to vote for Trump. In fact, for many Republicans, it might even increase their likelihood of voting for him.
Two recent polls indicate that Trump has regained the lead, despite facing contempt charges and the threat of imprisonment. These polls highlight a concerning trend for the Biden campaign, which had previously believed that the momentum was shifting in their favor after the State of the Union.
During the period from February to mid-April, Biden’s position in the polls was improving. In fact, there was a point where Biden was ahead of Trump in 18 national polls.
Biden continued to achieve a string of victories during this time, which included improving economic sentiment. This was a crucial metric that the administration was actively working to improve. Meanwhile, the media’s focus was largely fixated on the initial news coverage surrounding Trump. It was during this period that Trump had shifted his attention from the campaign trail to spending the majority of his time in the courtroom.
During Trump’s legal battles, Biden managed to secure a significant amount of donations, strengthening his financial advantage over his opponent. A remarkable example of this was seen at a Radio City fundraiser, where Biden, accompanied by former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama, managed to raise over $25 million—a fundraising record for the campaign.
Republican infighting has been prominently showcased within the GOP, which has greatly impacted the party’s credibility. Recently, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Green (R-Ga.) made an announcement that she intends to initiate a vote to remove Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.). This move comes after Johnson relied on Democratic support to pass a series of foreign aid bills last week. Additionally, the Republican National Committee, the party’s primary fundraising arm, faced a scandal that resulted in significant layoffs and changes in leadership.
Despite all this momentum, it seems that Biden’s surge has come to a halt.
As I mentioned in a previous article, one of the main challenges for Biden’s reelection is the general belief that his policies have a negative impact on the economy and individuals’ financial well-being. Unfortunately, with inflation persisting, ongoing conflicts in Europe and the Middle East, widespread protests against Israel on American college campuses, and an open southern border, Biden has made little effort to alter this perception.
In January 2020, the Harvard/Harris poll showed that Biden had high approval ratings on three key issues: the economy, foreign policy, and immigration. At that time, 61 percent of respondents approved of his handling of the economy, while 60 percent approved of his approach to foreign affairs. Additionally, 57 percent expressed approval of his management of immigration. However, since taking office, Biden’s approval ratings have seen a noticeable decline across all three areas.
According to the latest Harvard/Harris poll released last week, Biden’s approval rating is currently below average across all three metrics. Specifically, he has a 42 percent approval rating on the economy, 42 percent on foreign affairs, and 38 percent on immigration.
From inflation fueling economic pessimism to the ongoing concerns about immigration at the southern border, and the increasing disorder on college campuses, it seems that Biden is constantly moving from one crisis to another. This raises questions about his ability to effectively manage and lead the country.
It is important to note that this does not imply that the election is guaranteed for Trump. He still has numerous legal challenges to confront, and the results of the GOP primary indicate that Nikki Haley continues to gather significant support, despite her withdrawal from the race.
There are valid concerns about whether progressives, who are angry at Biden for his support of Israel, will actually refuse to vote if faced with a Trump presidency. This anger has reached a boiling point and could potentially cause chaos at the Democratic National Convention this summer.
After a short period of time where it seemed like Biden had finally hit his stride, his approval ratings are once again declining while Trump’s popularity is on the rise. This development is undoubtedly concerning for Democrats as the November election approaches.
Douglas E. Schoen, a seasoned political consultant and the founder and partner at Schoen Cooperman Research, has an impressive background. He has served as an advisor to President Clinton and worked closely with the 2020 presidential campaign of Michael Bloomberg. Schoen’s expertise in politics and his extensive experience have led him to publish a new book titled “The End of Democracy? Russia and China on the Rise and America in Retreat.”
