The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has issued its highest-ever May storm forecast for the 2017 hurricane season.
At a news conference Thursday for the 2024 hurricane outlook, National Weather Service forecasters predicted that all categories of storms will exceed the annual average.
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NOAA forecasts between 17 and 25 named storms, compared to an average of 14; eight to 13 hurricanes, compared to an average of seven; and four to seven significant hurricanes, compared to an average of three.
Multiple experts, including National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan and National Weather Service Director Ken Graham, referred to the 2024 Hurricane Outlook as the “highest” forecast ever given in May.
Wind speeds of 111 mph or more classify a major hurricane as Category 3, 4, or 5.
Increased storms are predicted due to near-record warm water temperatures in the Atlantic and a developing La Niรฑa, which reduces wind shear in the western Atlantic.
Furthermore, an above-average African monsoon season will spark thunderstorms over Africa, which will eventually develop into tropical systems in the Atlantic.
The Atlantic hurricane season begins on June 1 and extends until November 30. According to NOAA, the season normally peaks around September 10.
Researchers believe climate change will have a big impact on the Atlantic hurricane season.
Scientists anticipate that human-caused climate change will warm the surface ocean temperatures, feeding increasingly intense tropical cyclones with more extreme precipitation.
Increasing sea levels, which most likely significantly contribute to global climate change, increase the devastating potential of individual tropical cyclones through storm surge.
Tropical storm precipitation rates are also expected to rise due to increased atmospheric moisture caused by global warming, as a warmer environment can contain more water.
Studies predict a further increase in the proportion of Category 4 and 5 tropical storms, most likely due to more frequent rapid intensification (when hurricanes develop quickly as they approach land).
Most current studies predict that the total number of tropical storms each year will decrease or remain about constant, but those that do form will be more intense in terms of strength and damage.
Researchers told ABC News that both surface warming and warming higher in the atmosphere could contribute to fewer cyclones in the oceans. Storms are less likely to form when there is a smaller temperature difference as you move higher up in the atmosphere.
“With the anticipation of another active hurricane season on the horizon, insurers and homeowners should do everything they can to prepare and mitigate as much risk as possible,” CoreLogic, a property solutions firm that plans to release a hurricane risk report next week.
