The summer box office is off to a slow start. On its opening day, Universal’s action-romance “The Fall Guy,” starring Ryan Gosling as a Hollywood stuntman pursuing a rising filmmaker played by Emily Blunt, earned $10.4 million from 4,002 locations, including $3 million and change from preview screenings. We now expect the film to gross $28 million over three days, which falls short of industry expectations of a launch in the low to mid-30s.
It’s a disappointing result for Universal, which has struggled to capitalize on Gosling’s hot post-“Barbie” media presence and a slew of good reviews for the action film following a buzzy March premiere at the SXSW Festival. With a $130 million production budget, the David Leitch-directed film may not have the same commercial expectations as the summer’s biggest tentpoles, but it still has a significant amount to recoup. Though “Fall Guy” is Leitch’s most expensive project aside from his “Fast & Furious” spin-off, it will struggle to reach the $30 million domestic debut of his previous venture, the Brad Pitt film “Bullet Train.” The Sony release cost $40 million less to produce.
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Due to its release on the first weekend of May, a calendar spot traditionally reserved for the greatest tentpoles in recent years, particularly from Marvel Studios, “The Fall Guy” is also facing some inflated expectations. “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness” grossed $187 million two years ago, while “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” earned $118 million last year. Originally scheduled for this weekend, “Deadpool & Wolverine” experienced a development halt due to last year’s strikes.
Universal quickly shifted “The Fall Guy” into the vacant slot, a planned move to position the picture as a summer blockbuster. An opening price of less than $30 million would fall short of meeting that branding. If the film stands up well, “The Fall Guy” still has a chance of becoming profitable. According to audience survey firm Cinema Score’s “A-” grade, reviews are positive, and early ticket buyers are also pleased. However, the North American theatrical sector, already over 20% behind last year’s sales, is hardly off to a promising start to the expected busiest season for exhibitors.
Based on the 1980s television series of the same name, “The Fall Guy” portrays Gosling as a stuntman who assists his director and former fling, played by Blunt, in investigating a conspiracy surrounding the disappearance of a movie star (Aaron Taylor-Johnson). The cast also features Hannah Waddingham, Winston Duke, Stephanie Hsu, and Teresa Palmer.
Sony will also premiere the horror film “Tarot” in 3,104 theaters this weekend. From its Friday and preview screenings, the Screen Gems film earned $2.5 million, positioning it for a fourth place finish. With a PG-13 rating and an $8 million production budget, “Tarot” is performing well with younger viewers, despite receiving negative reviews and a “C-” on Cinema Score.
And America still loves Gungans and droids, with Disney’s 25th anniversary re-release of “Star Wars: Episode I—TThe Phantom Menace” expected to finish third this weekend after collecting $2.4 million on Friday from 2,700 locations. Today is “Star Wars” Day, so may the fourth be with you. The prequel outperformed the re-release of “Return of the Jedi” last year, which grossed $4.6 million in its first three days.
In second place, Amazon MGM’s “Challengers” is maintaining a strong hold in its sophomore release. The love-triangle tennis story grossed $2.5 million on Friday, a 59% drop from its opening day. We expect the Zendaya picture to gross more than $30 million domestically through Sunday.
And fifth place should go to Legendary Entertainment’s “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire,” which is still on its sixth weekend of distribution. We expect the Warner Bros. film to gross an additional $4.2 million, thereby bringing its domestic total to an astounding $187 million. We anticipate it to surpass Universal’s “Kung Fu Panda 4” as the year’s second-highest grossing North American film.
